Lake Powell hasn't been this low since June of 1965, just two years after it began to fill with water. "We can make up energy through fossil fuels, but if we fall short on water, we have to restrict supply because there are little to no replacements," he said. The Department of the Interior had asked the seven states of the Colorado River Compact to come up with a plan to cut between 2 and 4 million acre-feet of water by January. 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Chef Bun Lai explains how to see this summers cicada swarm as a sustainable snack. Nearly all of Utah, New Mexico, . Weve seen evaporation increase from reservoirs and streams at higher temperatures. Lake Mead and Lake Powell, for water. When its needed its released to Lake Mead and the three Lower Basin states. You would have to go back to April of 1937, also twoyears into its initial filling, to find levels that low. The latest projections from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation show there's a. YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video. What about the idea of a water shortage? Newsweek reached out to the Central Arizona Project for comment. And theres already a supply-demand imbalance on the Colorado River, and the supply is shrinking faster than officials are able to shrink the demands that we have on the river. The water level on Lake Powell is 100 feet from its high mark in August 2013. Water managers across the region are on the clock to come up with new rules for how to share Colorado River water before 2026, when the current guidelines expire. Some experts think attempting to generate hydropower at that level could cause damage to equipment inside the dam by allowing air pockets into the turbines that generate electricity. Applying data from three droughts from a 25-year period starting in 1988, it predicted that even with little new growth in that basin, a moderate drought would trigger shortages of 350,000 to 500,000 acre-feet. How does climate change affect you? If its done intentionally, the drawbacks of losing the reservoir could be minimized and the benefits could be maximized, Balken told The Hill. The sp_t cookie is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content. There is also 29 federally-recognized tribes in the basin, of which 10 of those tribes hold a significant amount of water rights from the river. Scientists say the current status of Lake Mead is a stark illustration of climate change and a megadrought that could be the worst in the U.S. West in 1,200 years . Keep reading with a digital access subscription. Asthe latest round of federal forecastsfor the rivers flow shows, its plausible, maybe even likely, that the situation could get much worse this year. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The lake was just under 24 percent full as of last week, and had lost 16 feet in the last year. What happens if Lake Powell runs out of water? And it takes several years of good weather in order to bring the system out of drought. At its highest, in 1983, the lake was 3,708 feet above sea level. If the water level continues falling on its own, below minimum power pool, the dam is physically incapable of releasing a lot of water. In . Balken surmises the jugs were tied to the trees back when Lake Powell just covered their upper branches to warn boaters of the hazard beneath the surface. Federal and state officials have committed to a more inclusive process that integrates the needs of tribes, environmental and recreation groups, and Mexico. And it's not a backroom voodoo mystery that only fortune tellers can forecast. The TiPMix cookie is set by Azure to determine which web server the users must be directed to. Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. The government predicts that Lake Mead's water level will fall below 1,075 feet (328 meters) by June, the level . This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Lakes Mead and Powell. Meanwhile, Lake Powells projected decline in 2021 recently triggered the Upper Basin plan to be used for the first time. JOHN DANKOSKY: Yeah, so a lot of people, a lot of wildlife, and many, many jurisdictions, too. Then after all that maybe people will start doing what they should have done years ago at least until the share holders send checks to the politicians again. Contact reporter Tony Davis at tdavis@tucson.com or 806-7746. LUKE RUNYON: Sure, so much of the attention in the basin goes towards the rivers largest reservoirs, which also happen to be the biggest reservoirs in the entire United States. Its lagging in both the Upper and Lower basins, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects much of the watershed totilt toward hotter and drier weatherfor the rest of the winter. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. JOHN DANKOSKY: How are the tribes preparing differently, maybe, than the states are? The dam's evil has had no more prolific publicist than the writer Edward Abbey, whose Monkey Wrench Gang aspired ultimately to bring down the dam. Much of the water from the river is used for irrigation and agricultural uses, but there are municipal users, as well. Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet. As a key ingredient in everything from asphalt to microchips, scientists are trying to make sand extraction more ecologically friendly. Forecasts dont paint a pretty picture for snowpack either. LUKE RUNYON: Yeah, so this is something that is harder for us to visualize, because were so used to looking at reservoirs and rivers. Experts say that the reservoir may dry up completely in a few decades. It does not store any personal data. "You might not see the lush lawns of today and endless fields of alfalfa, but you will see thriving communities and agricultural regions. The study is aimed, in part, at trying to help guide efforts at devising a contingency plan, to keep things from getting out of hand, Kuhn said. The southwestern states have been gripped by drought for over 22 years, experts say. Powell is not drying out in a vacuum.. The April-July forecast for Colorado River runoff into Lake Powell is 74 percent of average. Those are Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Utah. Im John Dankosky, and now its time to check in on the state of science. The loss of generation from the lake would deprive the grid of about a quarter million households worth of power. LUKE RUNYON: So in the Colorado River basin, a lot of the management of the river is tied to the level of its two largest reservoirs. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nations largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. But if the regions dry period repeats itself, he said, youll need fundamental change. His uncle, Stewart Udall, voted to create Lake Powell as an Arizona congressman in 1956 and shepherded construction of the Glen Canyon Dam that holds back the lake while he was interior secretary in the early 1960s. Luke covers the Colorado River basin. Correction: A previous version of this story indicated that 3,490 feet is Lake Powell's "dead pool" level. This is prompting a lot of people to ask whats going to happen next. Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. LUKE RUNYON: Well, Arizona is in the line for the steepest cuts from the Colorado River. And that sponge is very dry right now, and its sucking up all of that water before it can be used as water supply. Youre hearing a lot more now, especially because the interior secretary, Deb Haaland, is herself a member of a Native American tribe and has put a lot of emphasis on bringing tribes to the table, making tribal consultation a big part of the Biden administrations priorities. It is something in peer-reviewed, published science for decades and decades that the managers of the Colorado River have been ignoring.. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. The JSESSIONID cookie is used by New Relic to store a session identifier so that New Relic can monitor session counts for an application. They've been ignoring the problem coming for decades and decades. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. Newsweek previously reported that Lake Mead's dead pool level is 895 feet, while Lake Powell's is 3,370. Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Homicide. Hes also been a long-time guest host on Science Friday. That is incorrect. Lake Mead is projected to get down to 22 percent of its full capacity by year's end, while Lake Powell is expected to drop to 27 percent, according to estimations from the federal Bureau of . Conditions have been deteriorating across the river basin since the summer of 2020. Below 3,490 feet of elevation, Lake Powell dips into a zone where the generation of hydropower by water flowing through the Glen Canyon Dam becomes unreliable. However, he said the biggest impact will be the water. So Im guessing over the next several years, as policies are negotiated, youre going to hear a lot more about how tribes are being involved in that process. It wascreated by blocking the Colorado River atGlen Canyon in southern Utah and northernArizona. ", States that use Colorado River Basin water mandated to cut use. As part of 2019s Drought Contingency Plan, water managers agreed that the reservoirs water should be kept above 3,525 feet to provide a buffer before it got even lower, giving the agencies in charge some time to come up with a fix. It's been a vital force for the intermountain West because of its ability to. And so this creates a lot of potential problems downstream in the Grand Canyon, it creates management problems for the reservoir itself in Glen Canyon, and most importantly, it jeopardizes the upper[Colorado River]basins ability to meet its delivery obligation downstream, Balken said. In those cases, what's revealed is the dry and dusty lake-bedwhich can be a problem in its own right. Officials managing the effort say computer models show that taking these steps would reduce the risk of catastrophically low levels to near zero. The district entered 2021 with a record 3.2 million acre-feet of water storage saved up, including 1.3 million acre-feet in Lake Mead. This drought will only be exacerbated by climate change, as the increased global temperatures are expected to increase the severity of drought weather and frequencies of wildfires, as well as influencing a vast range of other extreme weather events. The droughts that we are seeing are becoming that much more severe because of the temperature component, theyre warmer, Bolinger said. By Jan. 29, when the "after" image was taken, Shasta was up to 56%. Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features. Its companion reservoir, Lake Mead, is at levels almost as low. Dry soils soak up snow when it melts, keeping it from rivers and reservoirs. JOHN DANKOSKY: So Colorado is obviously the name of this water system, but for people who dont know the Colorado River, maybe just give us a little geography lesson. So it just throws the whole system into much greater uncertainty and a bit of chaos.. Because of that, its expected that the Department of the Interior'sBureau of Reclamation, which oversees water management, will mandate onesometime next year. Welcome back to Science Friday, Luke. works with the radio team to create our weekly show, and is helping to build our State of Science Reporting Network. JOHN DANKOSKY: So its not just the reservoirs, though, where you see these dramatic pictures of just how low the water is. The water in Lake Powell is low because the amount of water in the Colorado River has been falling for decades. Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. Lake Mead, which is fed by Lake Powell upstream, would likely be the first of the two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels. Facebook sets this cookie to show relevant advertisements to users by tracking user behaviour across the web, on sites that have Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin. And youre able to say, oh, the rivers high, or the river is low. : Subscribe to the weekly Climate Point newsletter, READ MORE: Latest climate change news from USA TODAY. JOHN DANKOSKY: This is Science Friday. The new studys analysis is consistent with the studies and analyses CAP has been doing and is part of the reason its been focusing on trying to protect Lake Mead, Cullom said. The cookie is a session cookies and is deleted when all the browser windows are closed. That deficit is about the same amount of precipitation that falls across Utah in an entire year. This story is part of ongoing coverage of water in the West, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. Credit: Alex Hager. A years worth of rain and snow is missing from Utahs ground. The negotiations promise to be a more intense process than the basin saw in the lead-up to the last set of guidelines in 2007, or the effort to bring together drought contingency plans in 2019. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir and one that provides water and power to millions of people in southern California, has reached its lowest levels since its first filling in. Some of Americas largest cities depend on the water from Lake Mead. Water levels at . At 70 feet below the level of Lake Powell as of spring 2021, this stage of Fill Mead First would allow much of Glen Canyon's world-renowned landscape to reemerge and be restored. It supplies water and power to Arizona, California and Nevada. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. She compares the current drought conditions to 2018, another record-breaking hot and dry year just a couple years ago. Balken said depositing the lake's water in Lake Mead, which isn't made out of sandstone,. So when Lake Mead declines, certain policy triggers are put in place. This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC with financial support from the Walton Family Foundation. That year is the deadline for water users to negotiate a new set of managing guidelines for the Colorado River. Theyre already low, because the entire watershed has been experiencing above-average temperatures and below-average river flows since the year 2000. And even the people who say, you know, oh, just wait for it to get wet again, know that changes have to be made because of that fundamental supply-demand imbalance. Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. "That means that due to climate change, it is more likely that we will see [more] extreme heat waves". The finding is ominous for the region's future drinking-water supply. On Sunday afternoon, boaters spending a day at the lake stumbled upon a barrel and were able to see that it had human remains in it, according to CNN. Lake Powell's feeble condition is part of a climate reckoning in the West that links water, ecosystems, food production, and energy generation. Stretching for 186 miles along the border of Utah and Arizona, Lake Powell serves as one of two major reservoirs that anchor the Colorado River. Drought Conditions Affect Two-Thirds of the U.S. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Frankel criticizes water managers for their inaction in the face of those trends. These ICS uses, at the high end, amount to two and a half feet of elevation in Lake Mead. This cookie, set by Cloudflare, is used to support Cloudflare Bot Management. Lake Mead, which is fed by Lake Powell upstream, would likely be the first of the two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels. As of Thursday, Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet. Lake Mead's water level on Wednesday was measured at 1,044.03 feet, its lowest elevation since the lake was filled in the 1930s. And you know, thats way beyond any sort of voluntary conservation that Arizona has done up until this point. The third would transfer some water stored in the smaller Upper Basin reservoirs to Lake Powell. At its height, the lake surface sits over 1,200 feet (365 meters) above sea level. Together, these reservoirs, fed by the mighty Colorado River, provide the water 40million Americans depend on. "This is apparently a decent (water) year, but still, if it turns dry again there are some pretty big reductions on tap and every state could be affected," saidHasencamp. Definitions explained. The use of these cookies is strictly limited to measuring the site's audience. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. The historic megadrought that is squeezing some Western states water supplies will also likely start showing up in energy bills, because those dams cant produce as much electricity. By the end of the summer, its projected to be even lower, at 29% of its capacity, which is a record low. A drought that has gripped the Southwest is creeping the nation's two largest reservoirs toward a dead pool, which would have catastrophic consequences for water users in the Colorado River's lower basin. In an emergency request issued in June 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation urged states relying on the Colorado River basin to reduce their water usage by between 2 million and 4 million acre-feet over the next 18 months. At this stage a significant amount of Glen Canyon . I havent shown the climate change hydrology because it just scares everybody, Kuhn told his districts governing board in June, according to an account of the meeting published in the Aspen Daily News. Climate change is driving more than two decades of drought across the region, and making it increasingly unlikely that Lake Powell will ever climb back to previous levels. But the last time it was anywhere close to that level was 1999. The study was financed by the district, which is based in Glenwood Springs, Colorado, along with the Southwestern Water Conservation District in Durango, and four water groups in Western Colorado that represent various interests. 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